BY GEORGE BARNA
It’s likely in 2024, the race to win the electoral college will be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes spread through a few key states – that’s out of an estimated voter turnout of 150 million votes nationwide. In today’s analysis, George Barna talks about his latest polling that reveals massive voter apathy among Christians, why it’s a gamechanger, and what can be done about it.
I’ve been involved in political polling throughout my 40-year career, including four presidential campaigns. Still, I’m heartbroken by my latest research showing that only 51% of “people of faith” are likely to vote in November—and a full 32 million Christians who regularly attend church probably won’t vote. Apathy among Christian voters could be the deciding factor this election.
What is causing this rampant civic apathy among Christian voters?
I asked that very question in my recent survey showing that massive numbers of eligible faith voters—a full 104 million—probably won’t vote in the November 5 election. This 104 million figure includes 41 million born-again Christians (defined by their beliefs regarding sin and salvation, not self-identification), 32 million regular Christian church attenders, and 14 million who attend an evangelical church.
The current political climate is a big factor. Voters express a general distaste for both major-party candidates and for the political process.
But much of this civic apathy flows from inaction by our nation’s churches—many of which avoid teaching on the key social issues that could guide people’s votes or help them understand how the Bible speaks to these issues.
Barely half of Christian churches—only 56%—bothered to take the simplest election-related activity: encouraging their people to vote. And in the past two years, only 61% of churches provided any sermons or teaching about the Bible’s stand on key cultural issues. The topics they did address most frequently were religious freedom (67%) and poverty (63%).
Fewer than half of Christian churches taught about other social issues. Among regular churchgoers, in the past two years, a minority recall teachings on abortion (49%), the issue of crime, law and order, and law enforcement (45%), or same-sex marriage (42%).
There’s growing dissatisfaction with the political process among faith voters.
The most common reason for deciding to not vote is a lack of interest in politics and elections (68%). Further, about half of those surveyed say they dislike all of the major candidates (57%), feel that none of the candidates reflect their most important views (55%), believe that their one vote doesn’t make a difference (52%), that the election has become too controversial for their liking (50%), that the election outcome will be rigged (48%), or that they don’t know enough about the candidates to choose one (48%).
What’s being lost in all this is the responsibility of Christians to vote—the call to be salt and light, so that biblical values are represented in the public square, and to influence their government and nation with God’s truth.
What does this mean for the 2024 elections?
Let me put this into context. In the 2020 election, the gap between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden was just seven million votes. But the real story lies in the margins of victory in swing states, where an average difference of just 60,000 votes per state determined nearly 40% of the electoral votes needed to win.
In this too-close-to call 2024 election cycle, the 32 million regular churchgoers who likely won’t vote is a gamechanger.
This civic apathy among faith voters will have dire consequences not only at the national level, but in state and local elections, and the outcome of numerous ballot measures.
I agree with ACU President Len Munsil, who notes that there are two huge take-aways from this blockbuster report. First, Christians could be the deciding factor in a bunch of federal and state races—but are choosing not to be.
And second, millions of Christians are longing for their local church to instruct them on how to think biblically about policy and politics. They don’t want to be told how to vote, but they do want to know why they should vote, and how to view political issues from a biblical framework.
As President Munsil reminds us, the Bible teaches in Proverbs 29:2 that “when the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; but when a wicked man rules, the people groan.” But without pastors willing to speak about the Bible’s perspective on policy issues, and without them encouraging Christians to vote, it’s hard to see how we can have the kind of godly government that would enable the people to rejoice.
We are experiencing a deep crisis of disengagement and distrust.
A lack of confidence in the process, frustration with the choices, and a general apathy toward the political sphere have left millions of believers on the sidelines.
But a first step in fixing this is pretty straightforward: The data show that if their church taught that voting is a biblical responsibility, one out of six likely non-voters in those congregations would reconsider.
Pastors wield influence in motivating their congregations. Even the simplest action—encouraging their members to vote their biblical values—could mobilize five million more voters.
Although many see the election as a purely political decision, I encourage people of faith to view it through a broader lens of biblical responsibility and cultural engagement.
Teaching people to live a culturally engaged life based on biblical principles is not about replacing a spiritual mandate with political emphasis. It’s about equipping believers to influence their culture in a way that honors God. And that includes voting for the next president, as well as determining who will hold many other federal, state, and local offices.
And in a society where a huge majority of people want their lives to make a difference, and millions lament the lack of options for making their life count, what a sterling opportunity November 5 represents.
